Almanac: At the Capitol

Based on the tone today, the end of session will be nearly impossible. Legislative leaders met with Budget Commissioner Tom Hanson and attacked Pawlenty's assumptions.

View the Capitol Update for April 28, 2009.

The new budget forecast and state deficit inform policymakers' discussion of federal stimulus funds, supporters rally of clean cars rally and young people want youth service programs spared.

View the Capitol Update for March 5, 2009.

State Economist Tom Stinson on the now smaller 4.6 billion dollar shortfall forecasted because of the federal money: longest and deepest recession since WWII, slow recovery, could be worse, stimulus package is not going to jumpstart economy, this is consumer-led recession, 2012 back to growth.  When I asked if consumers could help the recovery because it was a consumer-led recession Stinson said just like Christmas, with a grin he urged Minnesotans "to buy taxable items" but the recession is so wide spread that no particular area of spending would help. So it would not help if "we all go out and buy a car."

Budget Commissioner Tom Hanson said "It's good news and bad news" because economy is down but fed money helps current budget but it is not a permanent solution.

You could call it a MAK SMACKDOWN.  House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (nicknamed by Capitol insiders MAK) put the pressure on the Gov. Pawlenty's Budget Commissioner Tom Hanson. 

Because of the federal stimulus money, Kelliher said "we're talking about a do-over budget for the governor."  Hanson disagreed saying it's "not a whole budget do-over."  But Kelliher quickly jumped in at said Health and Human Services is 30% of the budget and education is 40% so "it's kind of whole thing."

Republican Rep. Paul Kohls tried to salvage the situation for his party by pointing out a DFL weakness, a lack of budget saying "while the governor has a do-over, the legislature has yet to do, we're still at the do stage."  This is why lawmakers don't have much to do for the next two weeks other than figure out how much stimulus money is coming until the next budget forecast arrives on March 3. 

Finance Commissioner Tom Hanson said "the economy has body slammed our budget."  The state has a shortfall of nearly $5 billion dollars.  Hanson called it a "dramatic deterioration" and with a new deficit in the current budget he urged action from the governor and lawmakers saying "the sooner we act the better off we are."

State Economist Tom Stinson say to use a technical terms "it's just plain ugly" the worst economy in 25 years and worst in most Minnesotan's memory.  It is not as bad as the Great Depression or even the farm crisis of the 80s for the state according to Stinson.   As he as long said before it was official "we're in a recession, but that's not news."  Corporate revenues are a big source of the bad news, ironically incomes are up, but fewer people are working so that doesn't help much.

Media, interest groups, lobbyists, lawmakers all scrambled to get the details.  The question many are asking is when will the governor unallot (that is unilaterally cut) he mentioned it would be weeks away if he and legislative leaders don't come to an agreement before the new year.  We're hearing meetings between the governor and legislative leaders will start at breakfast Friday.  Perhaps they'll do something we haven't seen and negotiate an unallotment.  If Pawlenty is running for president, unalloting makes him look like a strong leader as he heads into a session dominated by the DFL legislature.  

Democrats said it's a jobs problem and Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller hinted that part of the solution will be firing the guy charged with jobs, Commissioner Dan McElroy who has not been confirmed by Senate.  JOBZ is also another likely target for legislative elimination.  So the sparring has begun while both sides are still vowing to work together.  We'll see...