Almanac: At the Capitol

A handful of Republicans got called into Gov. Tim Pawlenty's office to try to get a handle on the hot potato of REAL ID. Minority Leader Seifert says the governor has vetoed REAL ID along with an education bill. Pawlenty is talking to some of his fellow Republicans who could be override candidates behind closed doors. We had the story tonight of the executive order Pawlenty has proposed on REAL ID with what he apparently sees as some compromise language. Opponents of REAL ID do not see a compromise, they don't want any part of the federal mandate. They think Pawlenty has vetoed a REAL ID opt-out because of presidential candidate John McCain's support of it. Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee oppose it along with the Democratic candidates. Sen. Mee Moua said Pawlenty's vice presidential ambitions are getting in the way of his governing. The question for some of the lawmakers in the "woodshed" depends on when he issues the executive order, before or after an override. Lawmakers are questioning if the executive action is constitutional since it could undo a legislative action. The Senate is poised to override and the question is the House.

***Saturday update: Gov. Pawlenty has issued an executive order delaying the implementation until June 1, 2009 unless the legislature does otherwise. That detail is the new development from the draft we revealed on Almanac. Opponents of REAL ID who were interested in overriding Pawlenty's veto of the opt-out wanted at least a delay. They didn't think the draft went far enough. The question is if this executive action goes far enough to stave off an override.

Mike Huckabee launched his Minnesota campaign and the most notable name is Republican Party Chair Ron Carey. This is the earliest presidential endorsement by a party chair in memory. DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez has stayed neutral until a nomination. Carey said there was "too much at stake to be silent anymore" and the party bylaws allow his endorsement. The biggest problem for Huckabee could be there are no plans for him to make a visit in person. While the Huckster pulled off a low-budget miracle in Iowa, he did it in person; and since his personality is a big part of his success, not being here in person could hurt him. This also creates a divided front for Minnesota Republicans with Gov. Tim Pawlenty in a huge national role and John McCain campaign's co-chair. Bush's Minnesota campaign press secretary Peter Hong ironically drew similarities between Huckabee and Pawlenty, saying they're both bright, likeable and love rock'n'roll.

On the eve of the Iowa caucuses Clinton's campaign took some time to pay attention to Minnesota. Her campaign chair and political director held a conference call with local reporters to "discuss campaign's momentum and grassroots support in Minnesota." They're predicting a record turn-out in Iowa and then their attention switches to a host of other states, especially places like Minnesota, which is part of SuperDuperTuesday Feb. 5th. By then half of the delegates will be chosen. Clinton's people say they're running a national campaign, not picking one or two states (subtle shot at opponents). Clinton is launching an "aggressive phone bank operation" in Minnesota to boost turn out here, which they're viewing as one of the "larger delegate counts" on that key date. Mr. or Mrs. Clinton plan to visit the state, but the campaign doesn't have any details yet.

Clinton should finish in the key top three, but the highest-regarded poll from the Des Moines Register has Obama with a true lead. Huckabee's surge also showed up in that poll with Romney in second like Clinton. My advice when trying to read polls is to look at trends rather than just who has what number. Obama and Huckabee are trending up, but it'll be a close race. Eric Black has a great backgrounder on MinnPost. New Hampshire will be an entirely different game and a state that looks a lot more like Minnesota with its independent streak. Apparently, that's why Gov. Pawlenty is spending time and getting noticed as he stumps for McCain. The Republican Senator's resurgence there is interesting and it's interesting that Pawlenty hasn't bailed from his longtime friend's fledgling campaign.