Almanac: At the Capitol

In what feels like the end of the quickest campaign vacation ever, St. Paul will be meeting for caucuses tonight and, among other things, will participate in the first Minnesota Presidential Straw Poll. Caucusing in presidential years tends to mostly involve party stalwarts and those with vested interests in referendums; in a midterm year the numbers drop drastically. So for a year that involves nothing but school board and city council, the thought that the caucus goers truly represent a full cross-hatch of Minnesota is doubtful. But still, you have to wonder — can a woman win the presidential straw poll?

In the latest polling done by Rasmussen Reports, Senator Hillary Clinton is leading Senators Barack Obama and John Edwards by 8% and 19% respectively, hauling in 34% of the vote for those who have a preference. And if anyone is progressive enough to give a female candidate a chance, surely it's the same group of caucus goers who are, according to the Pioneer Press, likely to take an already progressive city council and possibly make it even more liberal.

Yet that may be the nail in the coffin for Clinton. The same group of politically-minded folks who would be at ease in voting for a women will dislike many of the stands she took to make herself seem more palatable to those who may see a female candidate as weak, especially her positions on the War in Iraq.

So likely we'll find that the caucus is over and Obama or Edwards will walk away crowned King of the Straw poll. And Clinton will find that her first opportunity to score a win will have simply blown away in the wind.