Almanac: At the Capitol

Leading my Campaign Notebook this week, veepstakes speculation reaches a new height for Gov. Tim Pawlenty just as he holds a local press event for John McCain. The topic was energy, but there were only a couple of obligatory questions about that. Of course what everybody wanted to know was what's up with his seeking (or not) a new job? You know he held to his "not engaging in speculation" about VP anymore, despite a couple of dozen attempts to get him off message. Overall, Pawlenty's demeanor seemed relaxed, comfortable, like perhaps a decision had been made. Those of us in the local press have had some turbulent times with our governor in the last year, but the interactions at the press conference resembled the playful give-and-take of old. But, I'm sure he's not going to like press reports about his former spokesperson being pick up in a prostitution sting.

Leno ripped Pawlenty last night, mocking his low name ID. While reports circulated that an announcement would come this week, named campaign sources say McCain is ready to name his #2 anytime and that should happen within the next two weeks. The new Quinnipiac poll made McCain/Pawlenty happy along with Coleman's camp.

Speaking of Coleman, the Senate campaign bowling ad wars was the story of the week. The speed and expense in this race is really staggering. YouTube will have online Q&A sessions with the candidates. Steve Grove, Head of News and Politics at YouTube, tells me "Both Coleman and Franken have developed very robust YouTube channels they use to interact with the YouTube community. It seemed like a natural extension to bring their videos together and compare there visions for the Senate by letting voters ask the questions."

The national and local buzz is huge that Pawlenty will be McCain's running mate. A new Quinnipiac poll helps that thought, it shows McCain essentially chopping down Obama's once double digit lead in Minnesota.  The 46-44 lead for Obama now compares to 54-37 back in June.  Also, Pawlenty has an event in Bloomington for McCain today. He'll talk about lowering gas prices. The poll shows that issue is working for McCain, one in ten changed their minds and now favor drilling.

“Sen. McCain is gaining strength, particularly among younger voters, independents and the Twin Cities suburbs, but the situation remains fluid with more than a third of independent voters saying their minds are not yet made up,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Democrat Al Franken still faces an uphill battle in his quest to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman, with almost 20 percent of the voters in his own party voting for the Republican incumbent.”

Franken still has trouble down 53-38 compared to 51-41 in June. This is generally a well-respected poll, it has a good sample and talks to real people. But many are questioning the big swing.  Franken's campaign pointed out that "The party ID breakdown from the poll was 14% Republican 23% Democrat 64% Independent." 

DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez says the polls are everywhere and no one knows what to believe. The Democratic Party head did have a barbed quote when asked about Pawlenty for VP, after wondering if the governor would resign his state post to run for national office, Melendez delivered this back handed compliment about Pawlenty "He's done a great job sucking up to John McCain." 

As rumors swirl about McCain announcing his veep pick, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says "I've stopped engaging in all this vice presidential discussion." He made the statement apparently from McCain campaign headquarters on a live appearance on FOX. He repeatedly refused to talk about his place in the veepstakes, but told the interviewer it was "nice to ask." When she pressed if he has been contacted by McCain about being a running mate he again said he's stopped engaging "because there's so much speculation." But when it came to the qualities McCain is looking for, Pawlenty said first and foremost is someone ready to be president. Second, Pawlenty says McCain will be looking for a person who "balances his strengths," adds to issues, messages and someone McCain is comfortable with. It seems to me he's not talking because maybe a decision has been made, but I won't engage in the speculation either :)

There's also an increased collective sense that Pawlenty is not at the top of the list anymore. Even a boxing commentator Crackrockid posted a commentary on YouTube saying "Pawlenty's veepstock has taken a sudden plunge." He cites dropping approval ratings, no idea what he's talking about here, and shows this photo of Pawlenty playfully posing with kids accompanying a comment of "whispers of inproprietry" which can only be an odd reference to the WCCO Radio comment about having sex with his wife. It continues to amaze me how Minnesota which is seen as prude by the rest of the nation seems to have a better sense of humor about our politicians. But the legit national press said last week that the "chattering class" has moved on to a new flavor of the month for VP like Jindal and Romney.

Looking back at the week in politics, the U.S. Senate race was the story. From Jesse Ventura's announcement with Larry King on CNN that he wasn't running to 7 Independence Party members jumping in from former U.S. Senator Dean Barkley and former IP Chair Jack Uldrich. Getting less press is the fact there are also 7 DFLers in this race, most notably Priscilla Lord Faris who is challenging Al Franken. It was a madhouse outside the secretary of state's office for candidate filing.

The other story I'm watching is Pawlenty slipping a bit in the national buzz. The Washington Post moved him down from #1 in the veepstakes for the first time. But the buzz about his hair continues, MSNBC said the shaving of the mullet means he's serious about being VP. We documented the disappearing mullet back in May. MSNBC also says Pawlenty dodged questions about whether he is now being vetted. But our governor's biggest honor has to be making a hilarious viral hit from Jib Jab (notice him tucked into McCain's Straight Talk Express).