Almanac: At the Capitol

With polls all over the place in the Senate race, I’m getting asked a lot what to make of a 19 point difference between two polls.  If you’re not already, check out Pollster.com for the best overall sense of all the polls.  The trend lines are what is important and the trends aren’t good for Coleman or Franken.  Since July, Coleman has steadily slid downward, but what’s surprising is that Franken hadn't benefitted from Coleman’s decline up until the congressional bailout (according to MPR and Rasmussen latest polls).

We need to see where Barkley sits on this graph from now on because he’s a factor.  However, Barkley doesn’t show up in the polls until mid-August while Coleman’s decline was already underway.  Larry Jacobs' analysis is interesting that his poll shows Barkley could be topping out. 

Some wisdom comes from the former Strib Pollster who was a punching bag of Republicans who accused him of undercounting them.  Rob Daves writes on MinnPost that the tough question for pollsters this election cycle is who’s really a likely voter. David Brauer weighs in as well.

Party ID is another big issue that Coleman and Franken’s campaigns have used to downplay certain poll results.  I know an independent voter in Minnesota who recently got polled and wasn’t allowed to choose Independent as party ID.  The pollster said she could only choose R or D or leaning one way.  That shows you how much skin is in party ID.

And now the debates.  Barkley, Coleman and Franken each claimed they won Sunday's debate.