Almanac: At the Capitol

Well, I have been saying for some time now that this game is going into extra innings, and as the end of session races towards us this is becoming obvious to just about everyone.

The one thing that surprises me is how BADLY the Democrats miscalculated. If I were to predict the eventual outcome today, I would have to say that the Democrats will get entirely routed and the Governor walks away smelling like a rose.

There are a few reasons for why this is coming to pass. First, it is a truism that governors usually get most of what they want because they have the veto pen and the bully pulpit to work with. This year, though, Pawlenty is benefiting from several other very important factors that actually enhance his power quite a bit.

Ironically, the very size of the DFL majorities has turned out to be a serious liability. If the Dems had only a few-seats margin in each body they would be naturally cautious. However, their huge majorities have encouraged them to seriously overreach, presenting the Governor with nice fat rhetorical targets to shoot down.

Add to the overreach the near zealotry of the hard-core liberals and you have a recipe for dissention among the DFLers, particularly in the Senate. Pogemiller has set things up to be death match battle with the Governor, and in such a battle he is almost certain to lose. Other DFLers see this and it will make it very difficult for them to follow Pogie, because he is leading them into the jaws of hell.

One more factor that the DFLers don't seem to get: Their argument that Pawlenty won't compromise is a political loser. To most people that is like saying Pawlenty is being mean and unreasonable, and that doesn't square with their experience. The public LIKES Tim Pawlenty, so going after him for being rigid and nasty is bound to fail. People like Tim and will side with him against an amorphous and faceless Legislature every time.

So ... Pawlenty is playing this game with at least a full house in his hands, and by the look of his actions he may have a straight flush. DFLers have squandered a great opportunity to push some elements of their agenda through (thank God!), and will be lucky if they leave the session without a serious divide in, at least, the Senate Caucus.