Almanac: At the Capitol

As the "Battle at the Capitol" comes to a head in the coming weeks, it is unlikely Republican Governor Tim Palwenty will lose much sleep over his differences with the DFL legislature — at least not insofar as his political standing and political future within the state is concerned. With every stroke of his veto pen, Pawlenty could actually enhance his support statewide, and deepen his popularity among independents and conservatives.

For starters, Pawlenty began this session with some pretty solid numbers demonstrating support for him statewide — despite winning a narrow gubernatorial race last November. Pawlenty defeated Mike Hatch in 5 of the state's 8 congressional districts, even though only 3 Republicans headed to Washington after the vote. Pawlenty also won 41 of Minnesota's 67 Senate districts (61 percent) — including 18 districts that were carried by the DFL.

Secondly, Pawlenty has maintained a strong job approval rating throughout the first three months of the session — hovering in the mid- to high-50s, with disapproval marks now dipping below 40 percent (SurveyUSA, March 2007).

Thirdly, Minnesotans will likely view a Pawlenty veto as the act of a strong executive. When the Humphrey Institute asked a series of questions on candidate image in a poll of likely voters a week before the election, Pawlenty scored very high on "providing strong leadership," with less than 25 percent of Minnesotans giving him negative marks on this measure. In fact, Pawlenty was seen as more strong than honest and more strong than caring in that poll. Even if a majority of Minnesotans disagree with Pawlenty on the details and substance of a bill, they will probably not be tuned in closely enough to find fault with the Governor for vetoing such legislation. What they will take away from a veto is the image of their Governor 'standing up' to the DFL legislature, and demonstrating 'strong leadership' on these issues. By contrast, President George W. Bush was frequently berated for not vetoing a single spending bill that crossed his desk during his first term.

If it seems as though Pawlenty might face a political backlash in vetoing DFL legislation, that is perhaps because he works in a media market that happens to be overwhelmingly Democratic (Pawlenty lost to Hatch by 35 points in the 5th Congressional district and by 14 points in the 4th). True, Minnesotans elected strong DFL majorities into the legislature, but they also sent Pawlenty back to St. Paul; and many voters did both.

Pawlenty is the face of Minnesota politics and his political defiance of the DFL will enhance his credibility as an executive who can make tough decisions. If you are a DFL-er, don't expect his popularity to take a hit anytime soon, so long as his ink well doesn't run dry.