Regardless of how highly or how poorly one grades the performance of the DFL at the halfway point in the State House this legislative session, it is unlikely the DFL is at risk to lose its majority party status in the 2008 election.
In a study of nearly 50 years of Minnesota State House election returns dating back to 1960, there are several indicators that suggest the DFL will maintain its advantage in the lower chamber for at least a second election cycle.
First, party control of the House has only changed hands in consecutive elections one time in Minnesota since 1960: in 1984 the Republicans took control of the House, only to suffer a significant loss of nearly 20 seats to the DFL (and control of the chamber) in 1986.
Second, for the DFL to lose the House in 2008 at least 18 seats would have to shift back to the Republicans. The DFL netted 19 seats in 2006 and there have never been gains that large in back-to-back elections by different parties during the past 24 election cycles. In fact, after each 'landslide' election in modern legislative electoral history there has been a period of
relative stability in the party composition of the House:
- After the GOP won more than 20 seats in 1962, the DFL won only 2 back in 1964.
- After the DFL gained 27 seats in 1974, there was no change in 1976.
- After the GOP won 37 seats in 1978, the DFL won just 3 back in 1980.
- After the DFL won 18 seats in 1986, the GOP netted only 2 seats in 1988.
These very small 'corrections' indicate that after electing a new party into power — especially in definitive fashion like in 2006 — the Minnesota electorate is prone to give that party some time to implement its agenda — usually across several election cycles.
This is not to suggest the DFL won’t lose seats in 2008; in fact, it is at a much greater risk to do just that. In 2006 the DFL picked up 13 seats by 5 points or less and an additional 6 seats by between 5 and 10 points. As a result, the DFL will have to defend 28 competitive districts: 19 pickups plus 9 held seats. The Republicans will only have to defend 18 competitive districts in 2008 — all seats held by the party in 2006.
As a result, barring extraordinary events that will tilt independents and leaners significantly towards one party or the other, it is very likely the DFL will still be in power in the House two years from now, although with perhaps a slightly smaller advantage.